응집된 순간이 발생하는 것이 아니라면 흩어진 매도들은 조작팀의 매수에 당하게 되어 있다.

지금 시장에 응집된 트리거가 발생될 수 있는가?

없다면 조작팀은 다시 등장한다.

조작팀의 매도가 언제 나올 것인가? 그들의 생각은?

이 패배가 완전하고 완벽한 패배인 이유는 손실 때문이 아닌 나의 행동이 시장에 완벽하게 굴복되었기 때문이다.

왜? 난 나를 지키려했고 지켜져야만 하는 것이었고, 잘못된 일관성으로 시장을 대했기 때문이다.

또한 에너지가 떨어져 있었고, 몸에 찌꺼기들이 증가한 상태였기에 나의 판단은 낮아져 있는 상태였다.

하지만 몇몇 뉴스가 시장의 큰 상태변화를 예고하는 듯 했으며 시장조작자들이 무한대의 파워를 가진것처럼 느껴졌다.

허나, 금~월 인 경우 예상된 전략상에서 꽤 높은 가능성의 우위전략이 있었음에도 그것을 냉정히 돌아보지 못했다.

잠깐의 시간 동안 시장이 나를 더욱 몰아부칠것 처럼 느껴졌으며, 난 조급해 졌고 결단을 내려야만 한다는 압박감을 이기지 못했다.

결단은 필요했지만 그 결단의 순간. 그리고 그 포지션의 크기, 최초의 구상 등 모든것이 이미 예정된 과부하 상태였다.

in trading wild forest,

especially derivate world,

a single mistake can completely ruin entire trading.

it will definitely happen that way.

if i do trading i don’t allow just only 1 small mistake.

thing i select mistake myself.

this is selection i would select break my trading myself.

and this selection break my all of trading and life very fast.

Dont allow just one small single mistake.

Dont allow selection faster way.

Dont allow selection recover my loss.

Dont allow

I would appreciate your understanding regarding my lack of English proficiency as an Asian. (The following content was translated with the help of Google Translate.)

This is strictly an assumption.

There is no objective evidence. Please take this simply as an opinion.

Furthermore, I lack experience with the U.S. stock market.

It is also highly likely that all of the situations below are due to my lack of knowledge and experience.

I hope that I am wrong.

* I have been holding put options on Asian stock markets for one month.

Overview

Trump’s tweets lack credibility.

So why does the market rise every time he tweets?

The reason is that the market has always risen whenever he tweets.

The Trump Trading Team (TTT) demonstrates to the market that Trump’s tweets are credible and have strong influence by placing massive futures buy orders whenever a tweet occurs.

And their orders draw strong turnaround candles. This strategy continues to be successful.

It seems nearly impossible to beat them with the market’s scattered energy.
Their goal is not insider trading. It is to drive the market upward. That is a much greater gain for them. Furthermore, the market must not fall right now.

Even if TTT’s position is at a loss, if Trump is in power, that loss could be easily recovered. Trump will certainly do so.

TTT orders are even more powerful because their purpose is not profit taking.

They always place orders at the market price and are willing to accept the cost of the bid-ask spread.

In fact, they prefer to accept large spreads. This is because creating a large price gap can trigger HFT market-making orders, thereby inducing spot buying.

Take a look at the index futures and oil futures prices from March to April. We can easily see when they appeared at critical moments. Of course, they continue to work even when they are out of sight.

I am observing these phenomena in Asia. I trusted in the U.S. stock market’s self-correcting mechanism, but unfortunately, it appears the market is not strong enough to fend off market manipulation by powerful authorities.

This is not simply a matter of manipulated market prices. Now, TTT’s position could, when they need it in the future, smash the market like pressing the nuclear launch button.

Reasons why TTT is thought to exist.

1. Concentration and repeatability of order patterns that are difficult to occur in natural conditions.

Even when an event occurs with everyone prepared (assuming the schedule is predictable), there is always a time lag in the market where diverse opinions clash and generate large trading volumes.

It is nearly impossible for everyone to think in only one direction and execute simultaneously.

If this phenomenon occurs repeatedly, the cause is likely not transactions involving multiple people.

Large order volumes occur simultaneously, as if everyone shares a single intention (within seconds). What is even more peculiar is that these orders always include the entire bid-ask spread.

It appears as though the objective is not profit, but rather to manipulate market prices.

A sudden rise in futures prices triggers HTF’s market-making orders to sell futures and buy spot stocks. As a result, the stock price follows a significant portion (30–70%) of the futures rise, and if this method is executed 3 to 4 times consecutively within one minute, the market rises sharply, and followers enter the market.

2. After-hours trading intended to efficiently induce a “wag the dog” effect.

There are two advantages to after-hours trading for market manipulation.

1. Thin Trading Volume: Manipulation teams can manipulate U.S. index futures, the standard indicator of global stock markets, with a small amount of money. You might be a little surprised to realize that the amount required for this is smaller than you might think.
2. Unprepared Market Condition: Because the market is caught off guard, it becomes defenseless against TTT attacks.

Traders lacking confidence change direction in an instant.

The reason this is possible

1)Massive but dispersed ‘energy‘ VS. small but concentrated ‘power‘

Even if 10,000 are scattered over 6 hours and 30 minutes, they can be defeated by the 10 that exists in a matter of seconds.

That 10 changes the thoughts of the remaining 10,000. The 10,000 play it safe, but this is especially true if the 10 can sacrifice itself.

2) Actually, Trump’s tweets have no power, but…

The powerful buy orders generated whenever a tweet is posted brainwash the market into believing that Trump’s tweets are credible and powerful.

The more Trump tweets, the more followers flock to him, and his tweets gain increasingly greater influence.

Other investors did nothing.

But the market rose.

 

Purpose of TTT

They are not trying to gain unfair profits through insider trading.

The fact that the market did not collapse is a powerful justification that can legitimize Trump’s actions.

He is willing to do anything to maintain his power. If the market collapses, Trump will collapse too.

Trump must prevent a market collapse and an explosion in oil prices.

Even if he suffers losses from the market manipulation funds, he will believe that if he can maintain his power, he can recover ten times the amount of the loss.

This money is not important to him.

Furthermore, if everything goes his way, this manipulation fund also generates profit.

 

More Important Risks

The manipulated funds already contain significant long positions.

It will result in one of two outcomes.

When the market eventually beats TTT and falls, a massive crash will explode due to the liquidation of huge positions.

And it will hit the bottom of the market collapse.

Now, the market will start to recover.

However, if TTT beats the market and everything goes according to Trump’s will,

it means that Trump could collapse the market with a single click of a button whenever he wants.

In that case, when will he press this button?

He will probably press the button to his advantage rather than to adjust it to mitigate the market shock.

 

Other possibilities

If Trump is driven into a final corner, this sell-off could occur.

This has two effects:

1. It simply causes the market to crash. Manipulated funds are ultimately short-term capital.
2. It emits a signal that brainwashes the market into believing that Trump’s personal issues are negative news.

 

April 2nd

April 2nd was the day TTT suffered its first defeat outside of regular trading hours.

This was possible because Trump’s speech time was scheduled.

The market orders were not dispersed but concentrated, and crushed TTT.

However, once the stock market opened, TTT attacked the market with all its might, and as time went on, the market could not maintain its focus.

In the end, TTT beat the market even during regular trading.

I expect there was likely additional funding. In any case, concentrated power can shake scattered massive energy.

All short positions in the market were pulled out, triggering a chain reaction of price increases, and eventually returned to the initial position where Trump had given his speech.

With such strong price fluctuations, the market should either rise sharply again or target the downside, or there should be high volatility; however, the market has suddenly become like a vacuum.

With buying pressure already nonexistent and sellers dying out as well, the market became a fool.

Scattered shorts came in here and there, but TTT, appearing angry, immediately punished them.

This vacuum seemed like a signal that it had detected TTT’s presence. It took no further action. This is because this position is crucial, and sporadic short betting here would inevitably lead to an attack by TTT.

……

Since their (Trump, TTT) manipulation is directed upward, criticizing them risks being seen as someone who wants a market collapse.

However, we must look at the long term.

We need to consider what is needed to prevent the structure, not just the market price, from collapsing.

실행 조건

• 필요자금: 2천억 ~ 5천억
  • 이 자금을 날린다고 생각해야 함
  • 하지만 실행자에 따라 이 자금을 날리고 목적을 달성할 경우 더 큰 수익을 쉽게 만들 수 있다면
  • 오히려 득보는 장사임
• 필수 보조재 : 강력한 권력과 영향력, 전파력
• 필수 조건 : 혼란기 (모두가 눈치를 보고 있으며, 스스로의 판단을 유보할 때)

 

이 방법의  특징

1. 다양한 물량이 집중되는 것이 아닌 순간적으로 몇 건의 물량.
   1. 평단가 손실 기꺼이 무시.
      1. 당장 수익 목적이 아님.
      2. 시세의도 그 자체가 목적.
      3. 시세 의도가 도움이 될 수 있는 주체.
      4. 그 정도 주체면 시세 이상의 수익도 다른 방법으로 통제 가능.
2. 손절이 안 나옴
   1. 청산하면 의도 방향과 반대 작용을 주기 때문.
   2. 애당초 수익 또는 원금 보전 목적도 아니었기에.
   3. 그래서 포지션이 누적됨
   4. 이에 따른 마진콜 한계는 존재함.
   5. 결국 이 포지션들은 원하는 방향으로 시장을 만들었을 때 (포지션도 수익)
   6. 필요에 따라 대량 청산으로 시장을 망가뜨리는데 일조할 수 있는 추가 기능이 더해짐.(공격무기)
3. 정규장 이외의 시간에서 발생
   1. 미증시가 의외로 웩더독이 쉽게 가능함
   2. E미니 S&P500 선물 500 계약 : 약 100억원 > 0.1 ~ 0.3%
   3. E미니 나스닥선물 1,000 계약 : 약 300억원 > 0.1 ~ 0.3%
   4. 확신이 없는 구간에서 에너지가 방향성을 형성해 갈 때 이 정도 물량으로 쉽게 격파 가능
   5. 특히 24시간 시장인 미증시는 개장전 소량의 주식 거래로 주가를 형성해 놓으면, 본 장은 그 가격에서 시작됨.
4. 전세계는 미국 주가지수 선물의 눈치를 살살 살핌.
   1. 특히 한국은 스스로의 의지가 없으며 미증시 꼬리 잡고 따라가는 것이 벤치마크임.
   2. 유가, 금리 등은 경제의 1차 지표이자 주가로 영향을 주는 인과순서로 생각되나
   3. 대부분의 일상에서는 주가가 이들 지표를 좌우함.
      1. 주가가 좋으면 , “아 그런 지표들이 좋을만 하니 주가가 좋겠지” 하며 역으로 웩더독 발생

이 방법의 실제적 비용

1. 진입 스프레드
   1. 이것은 즉시 발생하는 비용
   2. 하지만 이 비용이 클 수록 (스프레드를 크게 만들 수록 : 즉 장대봉을 형성할 수록)
   3. HTT 메이킹 주문을 촉발시킴 (프로그램 매매)
   4. 이에 따라 선물 웩더독을 만들 수 있음.
   5. 만약 이 때 시장을 유인시킬 수 있다면
      1. 유인되는 정도에 따라
         1. 비용은 상쇄하고도 충분히 남음.
2. 역방향 손실
   1. 진입 방향 역으로 시장이 흐를 경우 포지션 전체에 대한 평가손실 증대.
      1. 반대 주문으로 청산하면 애당초 시세개입 취지를 부정하는 것이 되므로
         1. 이 리스크(포지션 평가손실)를 감안해서 진입해야 함.
            1. 즉 그럼에도 이런 행위가 이득이 남을 수 있는 다른 간접 수익원을 확보해야 함.

이 방법을 시장의 자정작용으로 막기 어려운 이유

1. 시장의 에너지가 100배 더 크더라도
   1. 그 에너지는 거래시간에 분포되어 단위시간당 1/10,000 이 되기에
      1. 100에 못미치지만 통일된 의도성에 쉽게 휘둘리게 됨.